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Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Trends Flat to Down

Reference
Kuleshov, Y., Fawcett, R., Qi, L., Trewin, B., Jones, D., McBride, J. and Ramsay, H. 2010. Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: 10.1029/2009JD012372.
The latest research on trends in hurricanes in the Southern Hemisphere comes from a team of seven scientists from Australia's National Climate Centre and the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research. Kuleshov et al. (2010) gathered tropical cyclone data for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the South Indian Ocean (SIO), the South Pacific Ocean (SPO), and the Australian Region (AR). They defined a tropical cyclone as "a tropical system that attains minimum central pressure of 995 hPa or lower." They also defined severe tropical cyclones as those that attain a minimum central pressure of 970 hPA.

As seen in the figure below, there are simply no trends in their data, and the authors conclude that "for the 1981-1982 to 2006-2007 period, there are no apparent trends in the total numbers of TCs reaching minimum central pressures of 995 hPa or lower, nor in the numbers of severe TCs in the five subdomains of the SH examined."


Annual numbers of tropical cyclones with lifetime minimum central pressure of 995 hPa or lower for the SH (Southern Hemisphere) (squares, right axis), SIO (Southern Indian Ocean) (diamonds, left axis), SPO (South Pacific Ocean) (circles, right axis), and AR (Australian Region) (triangles, left axis), 1981-1982 to 2006-2007 seasons, with linear trends (from Kuleshov et al., 2010)

Contrary to expectations of global warming alarmists, who claim that the Earth has experienced unprecedented global warming over the past few decades, tropical cyclones and severe tropical cyclones have not increased.

Archived 10 January 2012