Why is Malaria Declining While Temperature (Might Be) Going Up in the East Africa Highlands?
Stern, D.I., Gething, P.W., Kabaria, C.W., Temperley, T.H., Noor, A.M., Okiro, E.A., Shanks, G.D., Snow, R.W. and Hay, S.I. 2011. Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa. PLoS One 6: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024524.
Results indicate that temperature has increased significantly in the region, but with respect to malaria, "malaria in Kericho and many other areas of East Africa has decreased during periods of unambiguous warming." The paper does not attempt an explanation for the divergence in these trends.
There are two major flaws in this paper. First, it does not discuss whether the temperature data from the CRU for the specific locations are uncontaminated by microclimatic influences and, therefore, representative of the broader region. In this methodological oversight, it is far from unique. This shortcoming is endemic to many, if not most, studies of the impact of climate change. That is, they accept the underlying data without questioning its quality or whether they are stationary before undertaking statistical analysis or using them to model other processes. Thus, one should take this paper's conclusion that temperature is trending upward for the region with a pinch of salt. Hence the "might be" in the title of this review. Second, it does not discuss the differences between the three CRU versions.