The Case Against Climate Envelope Models of Species Range Shifts
Lo, Y.-H., Blanco, J.A. and Kimmins, J.P. 2010. A word of caution when planning forest management using projections of tree species range shifts. The Forestry Chronicle 86: 312-316.
Lo et al. illustrated their position by using the results of a dendroclimatological study of historical tree growth-climate relationships for three species of conifers distributed along an altitudinally-induced ecological gradient in the southern interior of British Columbia, Canada.
The three researchers proved their point by determining that the growth-climate relationships they documented differed "not only among species but also between ecological zones," which finding, in their words, "implies that the different combinations of tree species and site will react differently to the same change in climate." And, in a logical extension of what they observed, Lo et al. concluded that "predicted shifts in climatic zones are not a suitable proxy, on their own, for predicting shifts in species ranges at the landscape level."
Bergeron, Y., Gauthier, S., Flannigan, M. and Kafka, V. 2004. Fire regimes at the transition between mixed-wood and Coniferous boreal forest in northwestern Quebec. Ecology 85: 1916-1932.
Pearson, R.G. and Dawson, T.P. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12: 361-371.