Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: Models vs. Reality

Kiktev et al. introduce their study by stating the obvious (but extremely important) fact that "comparing climate modeling results with historical observations is important to further develop climate models and to understand the capabilities and limitations of climate change projections [italics added]."

In an effort to do just that, Kiktev et al. analyzed the abilities of five global coupled climate models that played important roles in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report to simulate temporal trends over the second half of the 20th century of five annual indices of extremes in surface temperature (annual percentage of days with T_min < 10th percentile, with T_max < 10th percentile, with T_min > 90th percentile, with T_max > 90th percentile, and annual number of frost days, i.e., T_min < 0°C), as well as five annual indices of extremes in precipitation, the observational data for which analyses they obtained from the HadEX global data set that contains gridded annual and seasonal values of the ten extreme indices that are calculated from series of in situ daily measurements (Alexander et al., 2006).

According to the international research team, hailing from Australia, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom, "the results mostly show moderate skill for temperature indices and low skill or its absence for precipitation indices [italics added]."

If climate model results are utilized as the basis for mandating a complete overhaul of the world's energy system - as the world's climate alarmists are attempting to do - the models should possess considerably more than moderate skill at what they do. But they definitely should not have low skill. And to employ models that have an absence of skill is the height of folly.

Additional Reference
Alexander, L.V. et al. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: 10.1029/2005JD006290.