A Century and a Half of Atlantic Hurricane Activity
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To further explore this issue, Chylek and Lesins "apply simple statistical methods to the NOAA HURDAT record of storm activity in the North Atlantic basin between 1851 and 2007 to investigate a possible linear trend, periodicity and other features of interest."
Using "a hurricane activity index that integrates over hurricane numbers, durations, and strengths," the two researchers report discovering "a quasi-periodic behavior with a period around 60 years superimposed upon a linearly increasing background." However, they note that "the linearly increasing background is significantly reduced or removed [italics added] when various corrections were applied for hurricane undercounting in the early portion of the record." Further noting that "the last minimum in hurricane activity occurred around 1980," Chylek and Lesins state that comparing the two 28-year-long periods on either side of this date, they find "a modest increase of minor hurricanes, no change in the number of major hurricanes, and a decrease in cases of rapid hurricane intensification." Hence, they conclude that "if there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to a greenhouse gas induced global warming, it is currently obscured by the 60-year quasi-periodic cycle."
In spite of the fact that the hurricane record analyzed by Cheylek and Lesins (1) started during the final stages of the Little Ice Age (which was the coldest period of the current interglacial), and that (2) the planet experienced a subsequent warming that has been declared by climate alarmists to have been unprecedented over the past millennium or more, there is still no convincing real-world evidence that global warming enhances either hurricane frequency or intensity.
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